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翻訳と辞書　辞書検索 [ 開発暫定版 ] スポンサード リンク Economic Confidence Model ： ウィキペディア英語版 Economic Confidence Model The Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory by Martin A. Armstrong. Armstrong proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which approximately Pi X 1000. At the end of each cycle is a crisis after which the economic climate improves until the next 8.6 year crisis point. The model has been profiled in ''The New Yorker'',〔 ''Time'' magazine,〔 ''Financial Times''〔 and ''Barrons''〔 due to what appeared to be accurate predictions. ==History== Armstrong's theory was first applied in 1977, when he used it to successfully predict an upturn in the price of commodities.〔 The theory is based on a list of historical financial panics (26 in 224 years, between 1683 and 1907), producing a frequency of roughly 8.6 years.〔 Armstrong concluded that a wave of 8.6 years moved through larger waves building in intensity amounting to six waves of 8.6 years constructing a major long wave of 51.6 years.〔 Also key are quarter-cycles of 2.15 years.〔 Armstrong's cycle was called the "secret cycle" by the ''New Yorker''.〔Nick Paumgarten. ("The Secret Cycle" ), ''The New Yorker'', October 12, 2009〕 In ''Time'' magazine, Justin Fox wrote that Armstrong's model "made several eerily on-the-mark calls using a formula based on the mathematical constant pi."〔Justin Fox. ''Time'' magazine. Pg 30; Nov. 30, 2009〕 ''Barron's'' noted the model called for a change in sentiment in June 2011.〔Robin Blumenthal. ("Circular Reasoning: A Market for Pi in the Sky?" ), ''Barron's'', June 25, 2011〕 Armstrong's forecast was covered by the ''London Financial Times'' on June 27, 1998 where Barry Riley wrote on the front Page 2nd Section: "Martin Armstrong, at Princeton Economics, warns that an imminent Russian economic collapse is a bigger threat to the rest of Europe than the Asian slump."〔Barry Riley. ''London Financial Times''. (Front page second section ).〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Economic Confidence Model」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク 翻訳と辞書 : 翻訳のためのインターネットリソース Copyright(C) kotoba.ne.jp 1997-2016. All Rights Reserved.